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Alex Fishlock | 03 November 2025

Agile vs Waterfall: Which Project Management Method Wins?

Agility versus waterfall in the age of the unique product

The main difference between Agile and Waterfall is when learning is allowed to change the plan.

Waterfall defines the requirements, delivery stages and expected result upfront. Agile works iteratively, using evidence from users, systems and delivery to decide what should be built next.

For predictable, repeatable work, Waterfall can be effective. For unique software products, where requirements, constraints and even the right solution may emerge during delivery, Agile is usually the safer and more commercially sensible approach.

The reason is not that Agile removes planning. It plans at the level of certainty the team actually has, then updates that plan as the evidence improves.

Here, Alex Fishlock, CEO of Catapult CX, explains why Waterfall often creates false certainty in unique software projects and why Agile provides a better way to control delivery risk.

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What makes a software product unique?

A unique product does not have to be something nobody has built before. It is unique when there is no complete, proven blueprint for delivering it in the organisation’s specific environment.

That uncertainty may come from:

  • New or evolving user requirements
  • Bespoke business processes
  • Legacy systems and complex integrations
  • Novel or unproven technology
  • Changing regulatory requirements
  • Unclear commercial assumptions
  • Multiple stakeholder groups with competing priorities
  • Operational constraints that only become visible during delivery

In these conditions, the desired business outcome may be clear while the best route to achieving it is not.

That distinction matters. Waterfall works best when both the destination and the route are sufficiently understood. Agile is designed for situations where the team must learn its way towards the right solution.

What is Waterfall Project Management?

Waterfall is a linear project management approach in which work moves through sequential phases. Requirements are gathered upfront, followed by design, development, testing and deployment.

The approach works best when:

  • The requirements are stable and well understood
  • The delivery process has been completed successfully before
  • Changes are unlikely or prohibitively expensive
  • Dependencies must occur in a fixed sequence
  • Formal approvals are required at defined stages
  • The expected outcome can be specified accurately before work starts

This is why Waterfall can work well for predictable, repeatable projects. A manufacturing-line improvement or standardised retail installation may be tested once and then reproduced across multiple sites.

The problem is applying the same logic to unique software development.

Software requirements often appear clear until users interact with a working product. Legacy dependencies emerge during integration. Technical assumptions fail under real-world conditions. Business priorities change before the original plan reaches deployment.

Waterfall treats these changes as deviations from the plan. Agile treats them as information.

A weak Waterfall environment can also mistake process completion for delivery progress. Producing a project initiation document, design document or stage-gate report proves that an activity took place. It does not prove that the proposed solution will work or deliver the intended value.

The process may be replicable while the result remains uncertain.

What is Agile project management?

Agile is an iterative approach to delivery. Work is divided into small increments, with teams regularly reviewing working software, user feedback, technical evidence and changing priorities.

Agile is not the absence of planning. It replaces one large, fixed plan with continuous planning at different levels: product vision, roadmap, release, iteration and daily delivery.

Frameworks and practices such as Scrum, Kanban and extreme programming provide different ways to put Agile principles into practice. The shared objective is to shorten feedback loops and discover problems before they become expensive.

Instead of attempting to specify the whole solution upfront, an Agile team:

  • Identifies the most valuable or uncertain work
  • Delivers a small, usable increment
  • Tests it with users and systems
  • Measures the result
  • Updates priorities using the evidence

This is why Agile is better suited to unique software products. The team does not have to pretend that every requirement and technical dependency is already known. It can learn while retaining control of scope, risk and investment.

Agile vs Waterfall: A Side-by-Side Comparison

Factor Waterfall Agile
Planning Detailed plan created upfront Progressive planning updated as evidence emerges
Requirements Expected to be stable before delivery begins Expected to evolve through feedback and learning
Delivery Sequential phases leading towards a final release Small, iterative and incremental releases
User involvement Concentrated around requirements and acceptance Continuous throughout delivery
Change Managed as an exception to the plan Expected and incorporated through reprioritisation
Risk Analysed upfront but may remain untested until later phases Tested repeatedly through working increments and feedback
Progress measurement Completion of phases, activities and milestones Working software, outcomes and evidence of value
Best suited to Predictable, repeatable projects with stable requirements Unique, evolving products with significant uncertainty

Why Agile – Waterfall hybrids often fail

Reporting is one of the clearest examples of where a poorly designed hybrid approach can come unstuck.

Traditional Waterfall governance tends to ask whether activities were completed on time, whether people remained within their allocated days and whether the project is following the original plan.

Agile reporting asks different questions:

  • Has the team delivered working software?
  • What has been learned?
  • Which risks have been reduced?
  • Is the product producing the intended outcome?
  • What should be prioritised next?

Tools such as Jira, Scrum boards and Kanban boards can make work, bottlenecks and progress visible. Daily stand-ups and other ceremonies help teams coordinate delivery, but the ceremonies themselves do not make an organisation Agile.

Story points are also frequently misunderstood. They are a relative estimate of effort, complexity and uncertainty. They do not measure business value. Value should be measured separately through outcomes such as adoption, customer satisfaction, revenue, reduced risk, faster processing or lower operating cost.

A roadmap or Gantt chart does not automatically make a team non-Agile either. Senior leaders may still need a high-level view of dependencies, investment and expected delivery windows.

The problem arises when Waterfall governance fixes the scope, solution and dates upfront while the delivery team is told to work iteratively. The team is expected to respond to evidence but is not allowed to make meaningful changes to the plan.

That is not genuine agility. It is Waterfall control with Agile ceremonies layered on top.

The result is often what we call #ScrummyAgileWaterBan: more meetings, more reporting and more process, without the freedom to apply what the team learns.

Agile governance should provide leadership with visibility and control without forcing teams to preserve assumptions that the evidence has already disproved.

When should you use Agile instead of Waterfall?

Agile is usually the stronger choice when the desired outcome is understood but the complete solution is not.

Use Agile when:

  • User needs require further discovery or validation
  • Requirements are likely to change during delivery
  • The product depends on complex or poorly understood systems
  • Technical assumptions need to be tested
  • Working software can be released and evaluated incrementally
  • Early feedback can prevent expensive mistakes
  • Priorities may change as the organisation learns
  • The project is creating a unique capability rather than repeating a proven implementation

Waterfall asks whether the team can follow the plan accurately. Agile asks whether the team is still solving the right problem.

For unique software products, the second question matters more.

How Catapult implements Agile using the Lighthouse Model

Agile cannot be imposed successfully through a company-wide announcement, a new set of ceremonies or the installation of a project management tool.

At Catapult, we use an approach called the Lighthouse Model. Instead of attempting to transform every team at once, we identify one suitable team and create the conditions for that team to demonstrate effective Agile delivery.

The Lighthouse team:

  • Works around a clear product or business outcome
  • Uses short feedback loops
  • Has sufficient authority to change priorities
  • Makes delivery constraints visible
  • Measures working outcomes rather than activity alone
  • Creates practices that other teams can observe and adapt

This creates practical evidence that Agile can work in the organisation’s real environment. It also exposes the governance, technology and cultural barriers that must be removed before the model can scale.

What Agile delivery looks like at enterprise scale

Catapult applied these principles when helping a FTSE top 25 global telecoms provider move away from slow, rigid Waterfall delivery.

The organisation needed to respond faster to competition and changing customer expectations, but long cycle times, siloed teams and slow feedback loops limited its ability to adapt.

Catapult introduced an Agile delivery model supported by continuous delivery, customer-focused discovery, continuous prioritisation, Jira, centralised repositories and real-time management reporting.

The transformation produced:

  • A 75% reduction in time to market
  • A 31% reduction in unit costs
  • Stronger alignment between technology and the business
  • A scalable model for Agile delivery across a large organisation

This is the point of Agile. It is not to make delivery appear faster or replace one reporting system with another. It is to shorten the distance between an assumption, working evidence and a better decision.

Read the full Agile transformation case study.

Agile is the Future for Unique Software Projects

Accelerate software and service development in your company by learning more about Catapult CX’s agile product management here or read this case study about implementing agile on a massive scale.

Connect with our agile experts today.

About Alex Fishlock: Alex is the CEO of Catapult CX and has more than 25 years of experience in software delivery, technology leadership and troubleshooting complex programmes. He holds an MA in Electronic and Materials Engineering from the University of Oxford, has taken two start-ups to IPO and has served as CTO for several public companies.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the main difference between Agile and Waterfall?

The main difference is how each approach responds to change. Waterfall defines requirements and delivery stages upfront, then progresses through them sequentially. Agile delivers in small increments and uses feedback and evidence to update priorities throughout the project.

Is Agile better than Waterfall for software development?

Agile is usually better for unique software products where requirements, user needs and technical constraints are expected to evolve. Waterfall can work well where the requirements and delivery process are stable, predictable and already understood.

When should Waterfall be used instead of Agile?

Waterfall may be appropriate when requirements are fixed, dependencies must follow a strict sequence, change is unlikely and the result can be accurately specified before delivery begins. It is particularly useful for predictable and repeatable work.

Can Agile and Waterfall be combined?

They can be combined, but the governance model must still allow teams to act on what they learn. Hybrid delivery fails when scope, dates and solutions are fixed upfront while teams are expected to work iteratively. High-level planning can coexist with Agile, but evidence must be allowed to change priorities.

Why does Agile work better for unique products?

Unique products involve uncertainty. Agile reduces that uncertainty through short delivery cycles, working software, frequent feedback and continuous reprioritisation. This helps teams discover the right solution before the organisation has committed its full budget or built the wrong product.